NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Wet rush hour marks the start of soaked weekend

3:50 PM
The rain is here and it is not going to be stopping any time soon through this weekend, which will be a perfect time to catch up on some movies, a good book, or perhaps finally conquer a very difficult video game.  What ever you do this weekend, it likely will not be done [...]

Timing key for snowfall end of this week

9:40 PM
This evening, my focus is not going to be on any particular model, but on the overall pattern that will set up for Thursday through Saturday morning.
The 500 MB pattern is not one that is atypical for a major winter storm for the northern Mid Atlantic.  Unlike normal winter storm 500 MB set up, [...]

Wet and raw conditions expected for the New Jersey coast

5:00 AM
Over the past several days, I have discussed a great deal about the potential impacts that the remnants of Tropical Storm Ida will have on the northern Mid Atlantic.  It is now clear that the models in general have handled this pattern poorly.
A surface low will develop off the North Carolina coast this afternoon [...]

Series of low pressure systems bring rain through Wednesday

7:22 AM
An area of low pressure off the VA/NC coast is moving along a stationary front that extends northeastward through the New Jersey coastal waters.  This low pressure system is enhancing lifting over the Philadelphia and southern New York City metropolitan area, producing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall.  This rainfall was a bit unexpected [...]

Evening Thoughts- model guidance convergence

9:48 PM
My main focus tonight is the potential storm situation for the end of this coming week.  For the most part, with the exception of the UKMET, there is strong agreement among all model guidance that a strong upper level disturbance will dive south through the northern Rockies and into Mississippi Valley on Thursday night. [...]

Quick Thoughts On 12 Z GFS

12:42 PM
The 12Z GFS is coming in as I type and the stormy potential is becoming more impressive for the Mid Atlantic.
The latest guidance continues the theme of a disturbance over the eastern Rockies from the Sub Tropical Jet Stream interacting with a disturbance from the Polar Jet stream.  By  Thursday morning, this disturbance intensifies [...]

Evening Thoughts- Blowing Winds and Cooler Conditions

9:12 PM

The low pressure system that blew past the forecast area this morning is now located over the Canadian Maritimes, however a strong pressure gradient is aiding in producing a stiff westerly to northwesterly wind around 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.  The pressure gradient is weakening over central Pennsylvania as high [...]

Developing low expected to impact region through this week

7:15 AM
This morning, the water vapor satellite image clearly shows the new and rather interesting pattern developing over the eastern half of the United States.  A strong upper level disturbance is diving into the Tennessee Valley this morning, carving a negatively tilted weak trough from the Mississippi Valley to the Southeast and Mid Atlantic coast.
Meanwhile, [...]

Boat and beach report for Sunday, September 6 2009

5:25 AM
High pressure will continue to produce clear skies and comfortable conditions through this evening.  As the high pressure system drifts to the east, the high pressure system will begin to loss influence over the region, which will allow disturbance along the stationary front off the coast to inch closer to the coastal waters of [...]

Evening Thoughts- A Great Weekend and Erika Fights Back

9:10 AM
The big news this afternoon is the continued weakening of now Tropical Depression Erika.  The center of Erika, poorly defined in the first place, was severely exposed from the strong convection due to strong westerly and southwesterly wind shear at roughly 250 MB.  As a result, the thunderstorms simply could not reform closer to [...]