Free weather forecast for New York, New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania.
8:07 AM
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The pattern for February has certainly delivered as advertised, producing near record if not surpassing record snowfalls throughout the region. However, like any other pattern, this pattern will come to an end and the clues to the pattern ending are already showing up.
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 26°F;Humidity: 11%;Heat Index: 26°F;Wind Chill: 12°F;Pressure: [...]
10:50 AM
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This morning I discussed my concern for convective snowfall along the New Jersey coast in the public post. I wanted to give more details on this threat this morning.
This morning I took a look at the latest sounding from OKX, which is on Long Island. Granted, the sounding is still a bit of [...]
7:40 AM
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I really put the majority of my time in trying to figure out how to handle the evolution of the storm for this weekend, so I didn’t spend much time looking at long range drivers like the stratosphere and MJO progression, but rest assured that no changes have occurred to deviate from the [...]
9:29 AM
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A lot of action is starting to unfold for the northern Mid Atlantic. As we all know, there is a snow threat for this weekend that has the potential to produce a significant snowfall for much of the northern Mid Atlantic. Then there is the threat influence of the MJO in phase 7 [...]
10:05 AM
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Over the past three weeks, the 500 MB pattern has been generally unfavorable for any significant winter storms for a variety of reasons. At first, the overwhelming strength of the negative NAO suppressed any potential for Sub Tropical disturbances to interact with the cold air at place, leading to a cold and dry [...]
8:10 AM
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As I’ve been discussing for the past several days, no feature is an island to itself in the atmosphere. As such, I’ve been keeping an eye of the developments of the stratosphere and the MJO to get a handle on where the pattern is going from this point. This morning I will focus [...]
10:50 AM
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If anyone has doubts that medium and long range forecasting is a difficult task, take a look at what the MJO has done the past few days. Yes, that lovely feature that helps drive the Sub Tropical Jet stream has produce a nice loop on itself, falling into a state of near non-influence [...]
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7:50 AM
The majority of next week will feature relatively mild conditions compared to the past several weeks, however the mild stretch will not last long as a repeat of what happened in late November is starting to unfold.
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 28°F;Humidity: 74%;Heat Index: 28°F;Wind Chill: 21°F;Pressure: 30.15 in.;
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9:15 AM
As discussed yesterday, the rapid cooling of the Stratosphere the past few weeks lead to the collapse of the high latitude blocking that supported the strongly negative Arctic Oscillation and the negative North Atlantic Oscillation. Over the next ten days, the Sub Tropical jet stream will be the dominant influence on the pattern, [...]
9:04 AM
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There can be no doubt that change is in the air as the Arctic Oscillation relaxes and the Sub Tropical jet stream gets some breathing room to flex its muscles now. The result of which is a pattern that by next week leads to a ridge moving through the East and a deep [...]
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