NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Very heavy rain is on the way for New Jersey coast

8:59 PM
The coastal low is clearly becoming the primary low pressure system this evening as very strong lifting is developing off the coast along with a classic satellite signature of cyclogenesis.
The radar this hour is clearly showing an area of very heavy rain just south of Cape May, New Jersey moving north towards the coast. [...]

Brief 12Z NAM Thoughts

10:08 AM
The latest 12Z NAM is out and boy does it deliver a heck of a snow storm!
The basic idea of the 12Z NAM is to take the 500 MB low over the Tennessee Valley and basically park that upper low over the central New Jersey coastal waters and over Long Island on Thursday [...]

Heavy rain for tomorrow morning, winter returns this week

9:26 AM
There is no doubt that heavy rain is on the way as a significant surge of moisture races north ahead of a powerful cold front.
Clouds will continue to increase and lower through the day as a strong southwesterly flow from the surface to mid levels pushes a warm and moist air mass into the [...]

Cold pattern setting in, lots of mischief in the air

7:53 AM
The cold front from yesterday is long gone, however the surface low over the St. Lawrence Valley, which broke a record for low pressure intensity in December for Michigan by the way at 970 MB, is producing a very strong pressure gradient over the eastern Great Lakes, the Northeast, and the northern Mid Atlantic. [...]

Evening Thoughts- disturbances and latent heat release

9:45 PM
This evening, several locations throughout the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area experienced a brief period of heavy rain, strong wind gusts, and even some lightning and thunder.  The culprit behind this line of convection was the cold front that will eventually cause the coastal low off the New England coast to explode. [...]

Boat and beach report for Friday, August 28 2009

5:25 AM
Broken to overcast skies can be expected this morning with scattered showers increasing in coverage late in the morning through the afternoon hours as a warm front pushes north.  Tonight, the remnants of Tropical Storm Danny along with a strong upper level disturbance will produce periods of heavy rain, which will continue through Saturday [...]

A tricky weekend forecast

5:15 AM
A cold front exited the forecast area late last night with a few scattered showers, however a few lingering showers will continue to move through the forecast area through the morning hours.  High pressure over the Great Lakes support by strong convergence and confluence at 500 MB will build into the forecast area through [...]

Severe Weather Overview for Tuesday, August 18 2009

5:20 AM
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms moved through eastern Pennsylvania and souther/central New Jersey yesterday evening.  These thunderstorms developed due to a strong mid level and upper level disturbance, which helped destabilize the atmosphere last night along a stalling cold front.  These thunderstorm produced frequent lightning, strong wind gusts, and heavy downpours.
The following [...]

Strong to severe thunderstorms moving through

9:40 PM

A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is moving through the Philadelphia metro and much of central and southern New Jersey this evening.  These thunderstorms are associated with a strong upper level disturbance and will not usher in any air mass change for tomorrow.  These thunderstorms will be capable of wind gusts over 55 [...]

Severe Weather Overview for Monday, August 10 2009

5:35 AM
A mid level disturbance along a warm front produced strong to severe thunderstorms over the Hudson Valley in the afternoon and evening hours of Monday, August 10 2009.  These thunderstorms were enhanced by a strong mid level jet streak at 850 to 950 MB between 20 and 40 KT.  This jet streak enhanced the [...]