Free weather forecast for New York, New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania.
7:30 AM
A strong area of low pressure continues to rapidly deepen off eastern Long Island as the low pressure system deepens to a 994 MB low pressure system. The majority of the precipitation with this storm has now exited into New England and the northwestern Atlantic, leading to just a few lingering showers and slow [...]
5:15 AM
The pattern going forward is becoming less complicated as guidance comes into agreement with making the upper low over the Mississippi Valley less of a factor for the region.
High pressure will slowly slide to the east of the region through this afternoon, overnight, and through Monday. As a result, winds will redevelop out of [...]
5:15 AM
The early fall pattern can sometimes give us a preview of some characteristics of the late fall and possibly winter pattern and if that’s the case, then the one characteristic that really stands out is amplification. Over the next several days, a strong ridge will build over the western third of the nation up [...]
5:20 PM
This afternoon, the trough that brought overcast conditions to much of the northern Mid Atlantic through this morning is exiting the Northeastern coast. Note the axis of this trough, which is tilted from southwest to northeast. This tilt is caused a “positive” tilt and at this position with the axis along the region, subsidence [...]
6:18 PM
The upper level pattern is about to go into a significant transition from a progressive pattern to one of significant amplification. Of all the model guidance, I believe the ECMWF is the most aggressive, however the ECMWF has an established track record of picking up these pattern changes so the model should not be [...]
5:15 AM
A cold front is stalling over the southern New Jersey coastal waters this morning and combined to high pressure to the north, is producing a sustained easterly wind over much of the forecast area. The easterly fetch extends as far up as 700 MB, where strong moisture advection from the Atlantic is being supported.
Note [...]
9:10 AM
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop over the southern Mid Atlantic and move north over much of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, the five boroughs of New York, and the Hudson Valley. Meanwhile much of Long Island remains high and dry this morning.
As expected, there are several factors that is driving this rainfall, and [...]
7:16 AM
I think most will agree that the Philadelphia and New York City metro is in serious need of a break from all of these thunderstorms. The forecast area experienced significant ground to cloud lightning, hail damage, wind damage, and with a touch of Oklahoma, even a tornado. Your forecaster felt like he was back [...]
7:50 AM
Surface high pressure from the Great Lakes remains in control over the forecast area, providing the region with perfect outdoor and beach conditions through today. However, the upper levels will be shifting and changing over the next 24 hours to provide a much more active pattern than what has been seen over the past [...]
6:50 AM
High pressure this morning over the Great Lakes is slowly building into the forecast area and providing the region with clear skies, light winds, and comfortable temperatures. The cool high pressure system from central Canada is supported by strong convergence and confluence at 500 MB, which is producing strong subsidence over the region. Clear [...]
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