Synoptic | NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

What has caused the heavy rainfall this month?

June 21st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:52 AM
June has seen some very impressive rainfall amounts with many locations well over an inch above normal. Even some locations double the amount of normal rainfall. While a continuous onslaught of showers and thunderstorms have impacted much of the Mid Atlantic, and specifically the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan areas, other locations have [...]

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Weakening cold front bring showers and thunderstorms

June 2nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:36 AM
A weakening cold front is currently pressing through central Pennsylvania this morning with showers and weak thunderstorms racing towards much of eastern Pennsylvania. The cold front the past six hours is significantly weakening with surface pressures along the cold front boundary rising at a rate of 1 to 2 MB per hour. This basically [...]

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Active spring pattern continues

April 7th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:26 AM
The Spring pattern that has brought a noticeable increase in precipitation over much of the forecast area, and that pattern will continue through the end of this week and through this weekend.
Note the map to the left. I labeled the “storm track” but not the jet stream pattern. The reason why is because the [...]

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Low level boundary may mean trouble

March 29th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

5:50 PM
A low level boundary south of the main synoptic warm front has formed over Monmouth County cutting westward through southern Mercer County and along the Delaware Rive towards Philadelphia.
This low level boundary will have the ability to significantly enhance low level lifting over these locations, which will have the ability to strengthen the [...]

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Defining Mesoscale Forcing And The Impacts On Possible Accumulation Totals

January 27th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

2:45 PM
I now have all the data from the synoptic scale and mesoscale aspect of the forecast for tonight through early Wednesday afternoon. First, let’s review the synoptic forecast for this storm.
A strong yet weakening disturbance is exiting from the Southwest this afternoon and will race towards the Ohio Valley. In response, a wave [...]

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Watching The Boundary Layer

January 27th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:24 AM
All though the morning I’ve been looking over forecast data from model guidance like the MM5, ARW, NNM, and other mesoscale guidance to get a better read on the atmosphere below 850 MB.
I pretty much have this storm nailed down with the exception of the time period from 5 AM to 11 AM Wednesday. [...]

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Forecast Ideas Coming Together, But Still A Lot Of Uncertainty

January 22nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:23 AM
The basic ideas of the forecast for the period of Sunday through Wednesday is starting to come together slowly but surely. Let me first say the GFS 00Z and 06Z ideas have little support in developing a strong and defined trough in the West. As such, I basically through the model guidance out in [...]

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Arctic Air Returns This Weekend Along With Chances For Significant Snow

January 20th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:44 AM
After a brief break in the cold weather on Friday, the Arctic air will be surging back into the forecast area once again.
A strong Arctic cold front will approach the forecast area on Friday with rain/snow showers in the evening. Ahead of the cold front, temperatures will warm to slightly above normal levels, [...]

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12Z Thoughts For Sunday Evening

January 17th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

12:34 PM
Well, a lot of the 12Z guidance is in and the mid level forcing is clearing going to be off the coast, at least that is what the guidance is suggesting.
For the forecast, I’m taking totals and slashing them in half. In other words, an inch, maybe 2 for central New Jersey through New [...]

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Very Difficult Forecast Setting Up The Next Two Days

January 17th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:30 AM
I have been working hard on this forecast and taking the pros and cons of each model solution. The overall idea here is that for much of the forecast area, this entire set up is not much of a big deal as the brunt of the storm will miss the region. However, I have some [...]

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