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Tropical Weather Update for Saturday, September 26 2009
Posted by: | Comments4:45 AM
Tropical Atlantic and TD 8
A new Tropical Depression has formed over the Atlantic yesterday afternoon, however the future prospects of this system are not very impressive. There is a slight chance that this depression could reach tropical storm strength over the next 24 hours and become Tropical Storm Grace. However, this tropical system is very poorly organized. Frankly, if not for the NHC, I would barely define this system as organized at all. A deep trough over the central Atlantic is expected to entrain this tropical system and eventually turn the tropical low northward towards the northeastern Atlantic.
The rest of the Tropical Atlantic is quiet as a ridge dominates the Gulf of Mexico with little sign of disturbed weather and the Caribbean is under the influence of a broad upper level disturbance.
No other tropical development is expected over the next 48 hours.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 59°F;
- Humidity: 62%;
- Heat Index: 59°F;
- Wind Chill: 58°F;
- Pressure: 30.32 in.;
Tropical Thoughts
Posted by: | CommentsThe main discussions for individual tropical systems like TD 15 and TD Nana can be found on the tropical weather page.
It is interesting to see how a lot of these tropical systems are tracking into the central Atlantic over the next several days. The transfer of latent heat energy from the Tropics towards the central and northern Atlantic is an interesting and key observation for the up coming winter forecast.
I have found that in winters where a persistent negative NAO occurs, the tropical system following that winter has several tropical systems moving towards the central and northern Atlantic. The added heat content in the long run sets up a blocking pattern south of Greenland due to the above normal heights that develop and the cycle begins to replay upon itself.
Now, this is only one factor to keep an eye on, but it is an important one.
Although I don’t think any of these tropical systems will have a direct impact on the United States, the indirect impact may be just as important for those on the East coast.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 53°F;
- Humidity: 93%;
- Heat Index: 53°F;
- Wind Chill: 53°F;
- Pressure: 30.28 in.;
Freehold
57°
Philadelphia
62°
Albany
59°
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