Teleconnections | NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Cold Air Returns, But Not For Long

March 9th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:18 AM
The end of the week is expected to be rather quiet, but rather chilly for the middle of March. A strong cold front will exit the forecast area on Wednesday night with strong Canadian high pressure building into the region from the northern Plains. At 500 MB, a strong upper low located at 50 [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bport, canada, coast, cold, cold air, cold front, collapse, confluence, Connecticut, convergence, doubts, down stream, east, East Coast, ecmwf, exiting, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, gfs, Great Lakes, guidance, Hartford, high, hpc, Islip, jet stream, Jets, Long Island, low, lows, mid, Mid Atlantic, Model Guidance, models, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normals, Northeast, northern, northern hemisphere, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, pressure moves, Reading, Ridge, s, Scranton, signals, south, southeastern canada, Storm, storm track, storms, surfaces, Sussex, Teleconnection, Teleconnections, Trough, warm, weeke, west, whic, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Closed

Snowy Tuesday Or Just Snow Showers?

January 31st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:12 AM
The medium range forecast obviously is focused on Tuesday as to whether the forecast area gets a heavy snowfall or nothing at all. It’s amazing just how much the model guidance has changed in the past few days where the forecast from ALL guidance went from a driving rainstorm for the forecast area and [...]

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Active Winter Weather To Continue

January 5th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:58 AM
The pattern will continue to amplify towards the end of the week and into the weekend. I want to touch on some points about the overall pattern first before discussion the forecast.
There is some discussion that the pattern appears to be like a return to mid December with a raging postive NAO. This is [...]

Tags: accumulation, advertisement, alaska, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atmosphere, Belmar, blocking, canada, clipper, clippers, coast, cold, cold air mass, combinations, Connecticut, continuation, discussion, Disturbance, dives, east, ecmwf, Energy, ensembles, epo, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, gfs, guidance, Hartford, high, ice, isentropic, Islip, lake effect snow, lifting, Long Island, low, low pressure system, lows, maximums, mid, Mid Atlantic, Mississippi, Model Guidance, models, moderation, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normals, northern canada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Rain, Ridge, Scranton, showers, snow, snow showers, Southeast, southeastern canada, Storm, storm track, storms, Sussex, systems, Teleconnection, Teleconnections, temperature, temperatures, transition, transitions, Trenton, valleys, waves, weather, weeke, west, west coast, White Plains, wills, Winter, winter storms, yukon. Technical Discussions Closed

My Winter Forecast For 2008/09

October 22nd, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

It is once again that time of year where snow lovers across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic have one question and one desire. Will my back yard see plenty of white or brown mud?
Before I go into detail about my winter forecast, I want to explain how I developed and produced the theory for [...]

Tags: area, Atlantic, axis, blocking, cold, CONUS, Cuba, Disturbance, east, england, enso, evenings, Fall, features work, forecast, forecaster, front, greenland, guidance, height anomalies, hot, hot chocolate, Hurricane, indirect impacts, interaction, issue at hand, japan, Jets, lows, Mexico, Mississippi, mistake, models, moisture, nao, normal, north, north observation, Northeast, observations, October, Ohio, one desire, opinions, pdo, Philadelphia, plains, precipitation, predominant characteristics, pressure changes, Reading, Ridge, s, satellite, satellite data, siberia, signs, snow, snow lovers, Southeast, Storm, storms, stratosphere, stratospheric temperature, subsidence, synoptic, synoptic features, systems, Teleconnection, teleconnection indices, Teleconnections, temperature, temperature and pressure, temperatures, Tropical, tropics, Trough, warm, watches, weather, weather enthusiast, west, wills, Winter. General Discussions Closed

Evening Thoughts

October 21st, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

I’m sure everyone got a good look at the 12Z model guidance and how different the GFS and ECMWF were for the end of this up coming 10 day period.
Let’s break down what we are looking at with the two maps on the left. These maps can be found at the Penn State E-wall, [...]

Tags: alaska, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, blocking, Bradford, central europe, cold, Connecticut, deep trough, E-wall, east, East Coast, ecmwf, evening thoughts, evenings, forecast, forecast area, gfs, globe, greenland, guidance, hard freeze, Harford, high potential, Islip, japan, Long Island, lows, maps, Model Guidance, models, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, North America, October, omega, Penn State, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, Reading, Ridge, Scranton, siberia, snow, snow flakes, south, Sussex, Teleconnection, Teleconnections, Trenton, Trough, White Plains, Wild Wood. General Discussions Closed

The Key Positions Of Ridges And Troughs

October 14th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

As you may have read, I am not all that impressed with the potential for a Nor’ Easter this weekend. The thoughts on this potential are covered in the technical forecast discussion.
I do want to point out though that I think the theme I am discussing today will become a key issue this winter for [...]

Tags: Atlantic, axis, better chance, close calls, discussion, east, East Coast, forecast, Indian, indian ocean, japan sea, jet stream, Jets, large scale, late september, nao, north, Ocean, Reading, Ridge, s, Storm, storms, Teleconnection, Teleconnections, Trough, watches, watching the changes, west, western united states, wills, Winter. General Discussions Closed

Typhoon That Will Impact Japan Will Have Implications For Northeast

September 9th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

Remember the rule I discussed about two months back about the teleconnection between tropical systems in the Pacific and the pattern over North America? Well, here is another example of just such a connection and why this hint in the future weather pattern gives us an idea what to expect for next week.
As seen in [...]

Tags: Connecticut, East Coast, Gulf Coast, Hurricane Ike, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Teleconnections, Tropical Storm Sinlaku. General Discussions Closed

Pacific Typhoon Track Gives Hint To Hot Times In The East

July 18th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

This morning, model guidance is showing a high potential for Typhoon Kalmaegi to move into eastern China over the next 66 hours before recurving to the north and east over the Japan Sea and out into the northern Pacific. Why is this important?
Well there is an old teleconnection rule that states that when a tropical [...]

Tags: East Coast, heat wave, Mid Atlantic, Ridge, Southeast, Teleconnections, Tropical Pacific. General Discussions Closed

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