2:50 PM

If you are wondering why I am not shooting out rapid updates, it is because I am trying to be very careful in what I am seeing this afternoon.

Personally, the issue at hand is I don’t want to go off screaming snow storm developing and then it does.  That would kill my credibility of my skills and this site.  On the other hand, virga is developing all over the forecast area, when it shouldn’t.  The satellite images are showing rising air throughout the coastal plain from the mouth of the Hudson Valley down to the Carolina’s.  It is clear that a disturbance is starting to support cyclogenesis off the southern Mid Atlantic and Southeast coast.  It is also clear that the primary low over the Great Lakes is weakening and thus so is the warm air advection over the region.  This precipiation and virga is forming due to the interaction of PVA and the developing theramal gradient from the surface to 700 MB over the East coast. 

As far as temperature trends, notice that temperatures have stopped rising over southern New Jersey.  Virga over these locations are blunting the warm air advection.  In fact, some locastions over east-central PA are observing temperatures falling AHEAD of the cold front. 

So here is the question that is running in my head.  If virga is developing along the coastal plain and there seems to be a developing thermal gradient setting up along the coast, then would this mean that precipitation is more likely along the coast.  My instincts say yes, but I don’t want to jump the gun yet.  If that precipitation over eastern North Carlina starts to back build and move into northeastern Virgina and the DELMARVA Peninsula, then we are looking a potentially HUGE bust in guidance.  I’m not ready to make that announcement yet, but if the trends continue, I will have to. 

In the meantime, the virga developing over the forecast area will continue to cool temperatures this afternoon and eventually snow and rain depending on locastion will fall.  At this point, the precipitation is going to be light, so don’t expect a quick and significant accumulation.  However, like I said, the trends are troubling for those that thought the forecast area would see nothing but partly cloudy skies and generally dry conditions.