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Tag Archive for 'tights'

Heavy rain may produce urban flooding today

April 6th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:09 AM
A complex forecast is setting up for the forecast area this morning into the afternoon hours as a strong disturbance generates a new low pressure system to the southwest of the forecast area this morning.
Currently, the precipitation on the radar would likely not indicate much of a rainfall event for the forecast area. The [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, amounts, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgeport, coast, cold, Connecticut, continuation, convection, convective, delmarva, Disturbance, enhancement, Erie, Fall, flood, flooding, floods, forecast, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, gradient, gusts, Hartford, high, Islip, lifting, lightning, Long Island, low, lows, Maryland, mid, moderation, moisture, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, northe, Northeast, Northwest, northwester, Ohio, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitations, radar, Rain, Rainfall, Reading, Scranton, showers, south, Southwest, Sussex, systems, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, tights, tilt, Trough, troughs, valleys, warm, weather, weeke, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, windy. Technical Discussions Closed

Fog will burn away, severe weather on the way

April 2nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:40 AM
The latest visible satellite image clearly shows that fog has developed throughout much of the forecast area with dense fog advisories issued for much of the region. The dense fog has developed due to a combination of lingering low level moisture from a few showers early this morning and very light winds. The good [...]

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Warm and comfortable today, stormy on Sunday

March 27th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:52 AM
The low pressure system that produce rainfall amounts ranging from a quarter to a half inch of rain has now exited the region. High pressure over the Ohio Valley is building into the Mid Atlantic, which will produce clear, warm, and dry conditions over the next 36 hours. However, trouble is brewing over the [...]

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Major Changes And The Reasons Behind Them

February 28th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:47 AM
An extremely rare and extremely difficult forecast is evolving for the forecast area this morning. In previous posts, I stated my doubts of a heavy snowfall as a perfect track with perfect timing was going to be needed to produce a significant snowfall along the coast. The model guidance and more importantly, the atmosphere [...]

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Defined Thoughts And Increasing Confidence

January 24th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:52 AM
I’m going to cover all the thoughts for the next seven (7) days in this one post. The reason is because the short and medium range periods are really interconnected so there’s no point in splitting them up. So get that coffee cup and prepare to read a lot. I’m going to add more [...]

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The Only Consistency In The Models Is Inconsistency

January 22nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:32 PM
I’ve been getting a lot of emails today about the period from Sunday through Thursday. Actually, I’ve been getting a lot of emails over the past 4 days about this period. I want to just send an apology if you didn’t get a response, consider this post your response.
My confidence for the period of [...]

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Icy Conditions On The Way

January 5th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:21 AM
A very dangerous situation is developing for parts of the forecast area that can lead to some significant icing over parts of the interior by Wednesday morning. These types of forecast can be tricky to forecast because the line between a heavy rain and over 0.25″ of ice is like walking a tight rope [...]

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Active Pattern Continues For Next Week

January 2nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:30 AM
The new year is certainly starting off with a bang this year, unfortunately that does not mean snow for all.
The main theme through this period will be the changing Pacific and Atlantic patterns. The negative NAO block will begin to weaken, however already the ECMWF is backing away from the complete collapse idea and [...]

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12Z Thoughts And The Friday Evening Winter Event

December 28th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

4:09 PM
I’m sure everyone has seen the latest 12Z guidance. The GFS is having trouble with the upper level features and the ECMWF is beginning to strut it’s stuff in the type 3 to 7 day span of dominance of accuracy.
Do I believe the ECMWF, well to an extent yes. I don’t want to put [...]

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Thermal Gradient Intensifying Precipitation

December 21st, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

7:21 AM
The thermal gradient is really starting to produce some strong low level forcing (LLF) over the forecast area. The latest observations are in for 7 AM, and there is some striking developments here.
First, as the primary low centered over southern Ontario continues to deepen (now down to 1000 MB), the CAD remains strong [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, belmar new jersey, Bridgeport, cad, coast, Connecticut, continuation, dbz, east, east wind, eastern Pennsylvania, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, Hartford, heavy rain, heavy snow, high, Islip, llf, Long Island, low, lows, mid, Mid Atlantic, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, Northeast, northerly wind, observation, observations, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, radar, radar images, Rain, Reading, s, Scranton, snow, south, southern ontario, striking developments, Sussex, temperature, temperatures, thermal gradient, tights, watches, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Closed