Archive for totals
Monthly News Letter has been issued
Posted by: | Comments7:24 AM
The monthly news letter for the month of May has been issued. Actually, the emails were sent out late last night and should be in your email this morning. If you signed up as a member and didn’t get the email, just drop me an email and let me know.
In this month’s news letter, I took a look at the developments we saw in May and the impact thunderstorms had on precipitation totals along with the drought over the forecast area. I also took a look ahead for the month of June and what to expect for the forecast area.
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-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 51°F;
- Humidity: 53%;
- Heat Index: 51°F;
- Wind Chill: 51°F;
- Pressure: 30.15 in.;
Cold front on the move, quiet conditions through this week
Posted by: | Comments10:37 AM
Good morning everyone!
I don’t know about everyone else, but I have been having a blast watching all the NCAA basketball games, especially since I am getting most of the picks correct! However, there’s actually some action going on with the weather out there today and it is time to discuss what’s going on out there.
The visible satellite image basically tells the story for the day and basically for the entire week. A cold front is slowly moving south and west over much of New England and will eventually move through the forecast area this afternoon. A few scattered showers are associated with this cold front and will likely impact much of the Hudson Valley and Connecticut through the day and the rest of the forecast area this evening. Expect clouds to increase through the day as the cold front drifts south, however today will still be an excellent day to go out and about as warm southwesterly winds will allow temperatures to rise through the 50′s and even break 60 degrees over some locations of over the Philadelphia metro.
The clearing conditions over Ontario and northwestern Quebec is from a strong high pressure system that will park itself over northern New England through the start of the week. This high pressure system is born from a mix of Polar and Atlantic Maritime air masses, which basically means much of the forecast area will be partly cloudy and cool through the start of this week, so get out an enjoy today because tomorrow will be a totally different story in terms of temperatures!
The strong high pressure system is supported by an impressive block over the northwestern Atlantic. As you can see with the image on the right. A strong upper low will develop off the New England and Canadian coast the will produce
strong convergence and confluence over northern New England. This environment is perfect for high pressure to park itself right over New England for several days. Note that further to the west, the storm track will run from the southern Plains right into the western Great Lakes, which normally would bring very mild conditions into the Mid Atlantic. In fact, if not for this block, the weather conditions seen today would be expected through the week if not warmer. However, as you can see, the position of the high pressure system will send cool Maritimes air into the forecast area from north and northeasterly winds through the start of the week, while the cold front stalls over the southern Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley.
Through the week, the block will slowly slide to the south and east, which will bring the best area of convergence off the Mid Atlantic coast. This is good news for those looking for some milder conditions as the Canadian high pressure system moves to the east of the forecast area. Clear skies can be expected through Friday with a moderation back to near normal temperatures after a cool start to the week with highs in the 40′s.
The cold front that stalled over the Ohio Valley will eventually move back to the northeast late on Friday and Saturday as the block finally weakens and gives way to the overall storm track that is centered over the Plains. A warm front will drive through the forecast area slowly on Saturday with overcast conditions, showers, and warmer temperatures. The speed of the warm front, which will transition to an occluded front by Saturday night will determine the amount of precipitation that will fall over the forecast area for next weekend. Currently, model guidance is hinting at a major rain event for much of the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 41°F;
- Humidity: 52%;
- Heat Index: 41°F;
- Wind Chill: 35°F;
- Pressure: 30.39 in.;
Thoughts For The Afternoon And The Right Technique To Shoveling Snow
Posted by: | Comments12:15 PM
I’ve just spent the past hour and a half shoveling the 10 to 12 inches of snow sitting on my drive way. Let me tell you, shoveling this snow is no joke. For those of you with the unlucky task of having to shovel this stuff, remember bend at the knees not the back!
Anyway, I took a peak at the radar the past few minutes and I know EXACTLY what is going on here. Up until my last post, the northern and southern branch were phasing in a favorable fashion to send anouther bout of moderate to heavy snow right through the entire forecast area. Well, looks like the seasonal trend (dominant and progressive northern branch) has finally taken over and is pushing the best dynamics north and east into New England.
For the rest of the afternoon look for the heaviest snow bands to move northeast into the Hudson Valley and New England. However the intensity of the snow bands will be no where near as intense as what was seen along the coast earlier this morning.
As for snowfall totals, overall it appears that the snowfall forecast is going to verifiy. The forecast map is the top link in the headlines, by the way. Obviously there are some locations (your the IMBY verification) that will miss out on the forecasted snowfall totals. That’s the nature of a convective snowfall event. Some locations get 12 inches while others get 3 and all within one county no less. You get the point. I’m going to wait until the National Weather Service puts out official totals and I’ll post them here.
Thanks again to everyone the contributed to posting observations. As always, you guys rock!
Update 12:30 PM: A weak disturbance on the very back end of this storm is over Virginia and racing northeastward. This disturbance will bring scattered snow showers into the forecast area this afternoon. There is potential for an isolated burst of heavy snow from these snow showers as the atmosphere still supports convective snowfall development. However, the heaviest snowfall is coming to an end over much of the forecast area.
The band over Long Island will continue to slow move northeast into Connecticut, however it looks like central Long Island is going to be ground zero for the heaviest snowfall from this storm.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 23°F;
- Humidity: 79%;
- Heat Index: 23°F;
- Wind Chill: 8°F;
- Pressure: 29.86 in.;
National Weather Service Chimes In
Posted by: | Comments6:02 AM
The National Weather Service from Mount Holly has put out some “estimations” of how much snow has fall over the forecast area in the latest Winter Storm Warning. I’m not sure how accurate it is, but here is what they say:
WHEN THE SNOW FINALLY COMES TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE A TOTAL OF 5 TO 9 INCHES ON THE GROUND IN THE NEW JERSEY COUNTIES OF SUSSEX AND WARREN. FOR THE NEW JERSEY COUNTIES OF MORRIS, HUNTERDON, SOMERSET, MIDDLESEX, MERCER, MONMOUTH, OCEAN, BURLINGTON, CAMDEN AND GLOUCESTER, SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGE FROM 8 TO 12 INCHES. FOR THE PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES OF BUCKS, MONTGOMERY, CHESTER, DELAWARE AND PHILADELPHIA, SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 24°F;
- Humidity: 79%;
- Heat Index: 24°F;
- Wind Chill: 9°F;
- Pressure: 29.79 in.;
Morning Update: Storm Moves Slightly Faster
Posted by: | Comments5:53 AM
The precipitation with this storm is moving slightly faster than thought last night by about 3 hours. The dry slot is moving through the forecast area now rather than at 8 AM, however the intensity of the snow did not disappoint. Snowfall totals throughout the forecast around range from 1.8″ to 12″, but a full grasp of how much has fallen can not be verified as most measurements were made at around 11 PM.
Although I didn’t post, I did keep an eye on the radar and snowfall rates and can report that the DBZ on the radar between 1AM and 4AM ranged from a low of 35 DBZ to as high as 50 DBZ throughout the forecast area with intense banding over many locations.
Currently, very heavy snow is falling over much of Long Island and Connecticut. A brief break in the heavy precipitation is over the Philadelphia metro and New Jersey, however snow showers are filling in at this area as well. Then a large area of light to moderate snow associated with the upper level disturbance is over eastern Virginia, Maryland, and eastern Delaware. There is heavy banding associated with this snowfall and the banding is intensifying. This area of snowfall can be expected to move through the forecast area from 6:00 AM through 10 AM producing another round of moderate to heavy snow over the forecast area.
Very windy conditions can be expected through the day as the low pressure system pulls to the northeast of the region. The 1002 MB low located to the east of the Delaware coast by about 150 to 175 miles will slowly intensify down to around 1000 to 998 MB through the early afternoon. Strong winds can be expected through the day, which will limit visibility and produce some nasty wind chills. Temperatures will hold in the lower to upper 20′s with wind chills in the single digits and teens.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 24°F;
- Humidity: 79%;
- Heat Index: 24°F;
- Wind Chill: 9°F;
- Pressure: 29.79 in.;
Evening Thoughts And Wrap Up
Posted by: | Comments11:13 PM
Moderate snow has overspread the entire Philadelphia and New York City metros including much of New Jersey. Locally in Freehold, snow is falling at a moderate to heavy clip with visibility falling below a mile to 3/4 of a mile. The sky is a light pink, indicating heavy snow and the winds are picking up, which is blowing some of the snow around.
The surface low pressure is tracking and developing as expected with a 1002 MB low just off the North Carolina coast. The latest pressure fall analysis suggest that the storm will track towards the 40/70 bench mark by tomorrow afternoon, which will keep cold air locked into the coastal plain at the boundary layer, while continuing to advect deep layer Atlantic moisture into the coastal plain. This process can be seen on the radar images as precipitation is back building over eastern Virginia and eastern Pennsylvania.
At this time, all snowfall accumulation forecasts are right on line. The snowfall rates will continue to intensify over the forecast area with wide spread moderate to heavy snow continuing through the early morning hours. In areas where banding develops (note: DBZ on radar will indicate heavy banding with DBZ in the 40 to 55 DBZ range), snowfall amounts will significantly exceed forecasted amounts. Those locations could possibly reach the 18 to 24 inches snowfall totals, but this will be an isolated accumulation amount. Conversely, those to the left and right of these intense bands will get less snow than currently expected. For example, in area 5 on the snowfall map, while most locations will get 10 to 14 inches, areas to the east and west of the strongest banding may only get 7 to 9 inches of snow. Where this will occur can not be forecasted specifically.
So to wrap this up, this storm is right on track and basically behaving as expected. The heaviest snow fall will continue from now on through 8 AM tomorrow before a break followed by a period of moderate to isolated heavy snowfall in the afternoon hours with the upper level trough lifting through the forecast area.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 30°F;
- Humidity: 86%;
- Heat Index: 30°F;
- Wind Chill: 20°F;
- Pressure: 29.97 in.;
Dry Slot Potential Ideas
Posted by: | Comments9:17 AM
As this storm intensifies along the Mid Atlantic coast tonight and tomorrow morning, a strong dry slot will form at 700 MB, which will cut off precipitation in some areas slightly earlier than some would like.
My thoughts is that this will likely not impact the forecast area until after 7 AM on Monday, with the most likely areas to be impacted to be the immediate New Jersey coast, Long Island, and eventually eastern Connecticut. Now, those of you in those areas, don’t have a heart attack. The dry slot is most likely to develop in these locations because of the strong ascent ahead of the dry conveyor belt at 700 MB. In other words, the same locations that will likely experience the dry slot on Monday morning will likely be the same locations that will experience an intense and heavy snowfall late tonight through early Monday morning, so I don’t expect the dry slot to significantly impact snowfall totals that are being forecasted.
As the storm continues to move northeast on Monday morning, the break in precipitation will be followed by the “back lash” snow from the exiting 500 MB disturbance that will be driving this whole storm. So, if you notice a big decrease in your snow fall rates after 7 AM tomorrow, don’t let your guard down as the break will be followed by another couple of hours of moderate snowfall through the early afternoon hours.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 30°F;
- Humidity: 86%;
- Heat Index: 30°F;
- Wind Chill: 20°F;
- Pressure: 30.08 in.;
Final Snow Map For Event
Posted by: | Comments8:56 AM
Here is my final call for the storm as I see it based on observations of water vapor images, boundary layer observations, and radar presentation. I think many of you are going to be pretty happy with what you’ll see!
SNOW MAP:
Area One: This area will be on the fringe of the precipitation shield with only light snow showers expected. Accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches can be expected.
Area Two: The latest water vapor images suggest the warm conveyor belt (supplier of moisture) is going to be rather strong, which means moisture will build back further west than earlier expected. As such, I’ve increased snowfall totals here to 2 to 4 inches. Some isolated locations may exceed 4 inches due to the up slope wind component enhance some of the precipitation.
Area Three: These locations will be just outside the best mid level dynamics, but will still get a period of moderate to heavy snow this evening. Snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches can be expected in this area.
Area Four: This is where we starting getting into some interesting mesoscale dynamics! Based on the latest model guidance and the actual evolution of the boundary layer and coastal front structure this morning, this area has the potential to be impacted by the negative aspects of banding precipitation. That is why I went with a range of 6 to 10 inches of snow with locally higher amounts. The heaviest precipitation and strongest dynamics will still be east of Area Four, which means there is a potential for some localize breaks in the precipitation. I still expect most locations to exceed 8 inches, however.
Area Five: At least for this forecast area, this location is ground zero for a major snow storm! I expect a general 10 to 14 inches to fall in this location with locally higher amounts. There are several issues I want to touch upon here. First, all of the best lifting at the upper levels, mid levels, and boundary levels are all present in this location. There may be some initial precipitation concerns at the start of the heaviest precipitation as the 950 MB level to the surface will still be cooling to freezing at the start of the storm. However, most precipitation type issues will be resolved by the time the heaviest precipitation will fall, between 1 AM and 10 AM Monday. There may be some lingering precipitation issue on eastern Long Island as well due to the position of the 850 MB low as well, however the strong mesoscale lifting should counter act the warming of the 950 and 900 MB levels. Convective snowfall will be a major determination on snowfall amounts. There is a significant possibility that some locations will be impacted by snowfall amounts well above forecasted totals due to the intense banding that will be possible in this storm. It is wise to keep this in mind, as the reduction in visibility will produce near blizzard conditions, which will cause significant issues for the commute on Monday morning. If you can, stay home!
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 28°F;
- Humidity: 92%;
- Heat Index: 28°F;
- Wind Chill: 19°F;
- Pressure: 30.07 in.;
A Discussion About The Impacts Of Convective Snow Bands
Posted by: | Comments8:20 AM
Considering the rapid development of convective precipitation over the Southeast this morning and the latest forecasted soundings, I want to quickly cover the impacts of what convective snow bands can have on accumulation totals.
First, when looking at a radar image, the best way to find convective banding is to look for a band of higher DBZ reading within the overall precipitation shield. The bands can run from north to south, northeast to southwest, or east to west. Usually they are oriented by the thermal gradient and the direction of the low level jet between 850 MB and 950 MB.
The impacts of convective banding has a positive and NEGATIVE impact on snowfall accumulations. Areas under the bands usually receive significantly higher snowfall totals than surrounding areas. A perfect example is the inverted trough storm that bombed central New Jersey and the Philadelphia metro with much higher snowfall than forecasted by model guidance. However, the other impact is that areas surrounding the snow bands tend to under perform in snowfall totals. This is become air is sinking around the bands, which means precipitation will weaken or even stop at times. This does not mean the storm is over as this is a temporary impact on the overall storm development.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 28°F;
- Humidity: 92%;
- Heat Index: 28°F;
- Wind Chill: 19°F;
- Pressure: 30.07 in.;
Freehold
77°
Philadelphia
81°
Sussex
73°
Allentown
77°
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