Free weather forecast for New York, New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania.
7:50 PM
The forecasting of the major Nor Easter that impacted the northern Mid Atlantic from November 11 through November 14 can best be described as very difficult and in the end the model guidance was not very helpful.
The potential for the storm was showing up on the model guidance by November 8th as then Hurricane [...]
5:00 AM
Over the past several days, I have discussed a great deal about the potential impacts that the remnants of Tropical Storm Ida will have on the northern Mid Atlantic. It is now clear that the models in general have handled this pattern poorly.
A surface low will develop off the North Carolina coast this afternoon [...]
7:22 AM
Can you find where Tropical Storm Ida ends and the mid level disturbance begins? If you can’t, don’t worry, your not alone. The mid level disturbance last night completely captured Tropical Storm Ida, which is rapidly weakening with winds down to 50 mph. Ida is currently centered just off the Mississippi coast moving north [...]
9:41 AM
As discussed yesterday, the majority of the model guidance and ensemble guidance came into strong support for keeping at that time Tropical Storm Ida, separate from the trough over the eastern United States and left to wander the Gulf of Mexico and eventually die off due to consistent up welling in the Gulf of [...]
10:21 AM
I wanted to expand my thoughts on Ida beyond the usual discussion. To be frank, I don’t have a lot of confidence on the models right now, but 99% of the time when all the models are pointing towards a general conclusion, it is usually a good idea to follow.
However, let’s talk about that [...]
8:48 AM
For the first time in a while, I can actually say there is no threat of rain of any kind through this weekend, and frankly that’s nice to say. High pressure will dominate the northern Mid Atlantic through Monday with dry conditions, clear skies, and temperatures rebounding to near and above normal temperature regimes!
Another [...]
8:32 AM
While high pressure gains control tonight over the Mid Atlantic to provide excellent weather conditions over the next several days, trouble is brewing over the western Caribbean. Tropical Depression Ida is reentering the warm Caribbean Sea this evening and is expected to strengthen back into a tropical storm by tomorrow afternoon. Ida is expected [...]
7:22 AM
There are a lot of interesting features throughout the northern Hemisphere this morning. This morning I’ll touch on the development of now Hurricane Ida and also the coastal low developing over the New Jersey coastal waters.
For the most part, the coastal low is moving quickly east-northeast and with it, much of the moisture. This [...]
8:18 PM
While high pressure and a building ridge holds sway over the Mid Atlantic this evening, trouble is brewing over the Southwestern United States.
Tropical Storm Rick, at one point a strong hurricane, is racing to the northeast towards mainland Mexico. The moisture from this tropical system is already interacting with a strong disturbance over the [...]
4:45 AM
As expected, Fred continues to weaken under the influence of strong southwesterly shear. The shear is forcing much of the convection of Tropical Storm Fred to the east of the center of circulation.
Over the next 48 hours I expect Fred to continue to weaken and will no longer remain an organized tropical system by [...]
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