NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Extended thoughts for November

7:56 AM
A major change in the pattern is about to take hold if stratospheric considerations are added into the equation.
Over the past several weeks, the Pacific been in a constant shift back and forth between an upper low over the Gulf of Alaska and an upper low over the Aleutian Islands.  As a result, much [...]

Tropical Weather Update for Sunday, October 2009

4:45 AM
The Tropical Atlantic continues to remain quiet as a deep trough pushes through the western Atlantic and central Caribbean.  High pressure will begin to build over the Gulf of Mexico over the next 48 hours, however a lack of an organized disturbance will mean that little in the way of activity is expected.  From [...]

Pattern becomes congested, cooler conditions on the way

5:15 AM
The upper low that had dominated the weather conditions over the Plains and Mississippi Valley for several days has been ejected to the east and is rapidly weakening.
The remnant short wave trough over the Ohio Valley is still pulling a great deal of moisture to the north into the Southeast, Mid Atlantic, and Northeast. [...]

Cooler, Fall conditions return

5:15 AM
The upper trough that finally forced a cold front off the East coast on Thursday morning will continue to slide to the east of the Mid Atlantic by this afternoon.  The trough axis will be off the New Jersey coast  this morning and passing the end of the Long Island Sound by this afternoon. [...]

Tropical Weather Update for Monday, September 21 2009

4:45 AM

The Tropical Atlantic remains quiet this morning and will continue to do so through Wednesday.  As expected, the disturbances over the Atlantic over the past 48 hours have been sheared apart by strong upper level westerlies from various troughs and upper lows.
Conditions will remain quiet over the next 48 to 66 hours [...]

Tropical Weather Update for Tuesday, September 15 2009

4:45 AM
The strong upper level troughs and upper level low pressure systems throughout the tropical Atlantic this morning continues to inhibit any significant development throughout the region.  Any tropical wave exiting the African coast is running into strong southwesterly shear that will tear apart any potential system.
Meanwhile the deep trough moving through the Gulf of [...]

Tropical Weather Update for Monday, September 14 2009

4:45 AM
The remnants of Fred is still trying to hold on over the central Atlantic as showers and thunderstorms continue to flair up to the north of the weak low level center.  There is a slight chance that this disturbance redevelops into a tropical depression once again, but the threat of this system impact any [...]

Tropical Weather Update for Sunday, August 13 2009

4:45 AM
As expected, the strong shear over the central Atlantic has completely torn Fred apart and as a result, Fred is now a remnant low pressure system.  Over the next several days, the remnant low of Fred will be absorbed into the stronger upper troughs to the northwest and will not have any significant impacts [...]

Tropical Weather Update for Saturday, September 12 2009

4:45 AM
As expected, Fred continues to weaken under the influence of strong southwesterly shear.  The shear is forcing much of the convection of Tropical Storm Fred to the east of the center of circulation.
Over the next 48 hours I expect Fred to continue to weaken and will no longer remain an organized tropical system by [...]

Tropical Weather Update for Wednesday, September 9 2009

4:45 AM
Last night, Fred officially became a category 1 hurricane with sustained winds at 75 mph.  Hurricane Fred has continued to move to the west-northwest at around 12 mph through the overnight period.
I think it is time to admit that model guidance has had some “issues” with handling the development and track of Hurricane Fred. [...]