Uncertainty | NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Tag Archive for 'uncertainty'

Southern New Jersey focus of snowfall

January 27th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

9:07 PM
This morning I discussed my uncertainty in the forecast and where I felt the largest threat for an accumulating snowfall will be most likely. While my uncertainty for the storm was pretty clear, I did feel confident enough to state that the northern interior was going to miss out on this storm. My concern [...]

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Cold front starts the decline

November 30th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:03 AM
The data this morning for all periods of this forecast is pretty interesting as a cold front will be moving through today, a significant rain storm will move through later in the week, and more uncertainty on how this pattern will unfold as the month unfolds. Let’s deal with the here and now [...]

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Evening Thoughts- storm threat increases for Friday

November 24th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:15 PM
Tonight I’ve been going over the various models from the 12Z and 18 Z guidance. First I want to touch on the storm potential for Thursday night into Friday.
The 18Z models are a good indicator of where models are trending or adjusting to. Both the 18Z GFS and NAM produced a stronger and more [...]

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Erika continues to weaken

September 2nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

11:20 AM
Tropical Storm Erika continues to weaken late this morning as strong southwesterly shear has sufficiently disrupted the low level circulation. Sustained winds have fallen off from 60 mph to 40 mph and the pressure has now risen to 1008 MB.
There is a pretty wide range in the models as far as solutions for [...]

Tags: Africa, Alabama, Atlantic, Bahamas, Caribbean, Caribbean Sea, circulation, ecmwf, Florida, Georgia, gfs, global model, global models, Gulf Coast, Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane, Louisiana, Maine, Mexico, Mississippi, Model Guidance, nhc, North Carolina, siding, South Carolina, southwesterly shear, surprise, sustained winds, Texas, Tropical Atlantic, tropical depressions, tropical disturbances, tropical storm erika, uncertainty, Virginia, warm waters, wind shear. Technical Discussions Closed

Sometimes it is best to wait

August 25th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:40 PM
There is a lot of speculation on what to expect this weekend. Several model guidance now suggest that a tropical system, possibly a hurricane or tropical storm will impact much of the forecast area. The problem? The tropical disturbance that will lead to all the havoc this weekend is yet to exhibit a low [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, Belmar, Bridgeport, circulation, Citi Field, coastal waters, Connecticut, forecast area, Freehold, gfs, hail, Hartford, havoc, heavy rain, Hurricane, Islip, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, Mets, model data, Model Guidance, model solution, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, organized system, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Phillies, Poughkeepsie, rain event, Rainfall, Reading, Scranton, speculation, Sussex, thunderstorms, tides, tomorrow morning, tornado, Tropical Disturbance, Tropical Storm, tropical system, uncertainty, White Plains, Wild Wood, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

Boat and beach report for Friday, June 19 2009

June 19th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:37 AM
Clear to partly cloudy skies can be expected through the overnight hours as a low pressure system continues to exit the coast and weak high pressure builds in from the eastern Great Lakes. Another area of low pressure developing over the western Ohio Valley will move towards the Mid Atlantic on Saturday. There is [...]

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Snowy Tuesday Or Just Snow Showers?

January 31st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:12 AM
The medium range forecast obviously is focused on Tuesday as to whether the forecast area gets a heavy snowfall or nothing at all. It’s amazing just how much the model guidance has changed in the past few days where the forecast from ALL guidance went from a driving rainstorm for the forecast area and [...]

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Defined Thoughts And Increasing Confidence

January 24th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:52 AM
I’m going to cover all the thoughts for the next seven (7) days in this one post. The reason is because the short and medium range periods are really interconnected so there’s no point in splitting them up. So get that coffee cup and prepare to read a lot. I’m going to add more [...]

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The Only Consistency In The Models Is Inconsistency

January 22nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:32 PM
I’ve been getting a lot of emails today about the period from Sunday through Thursday. Actually, I’ve been getting a lot of emails over the past 4 days about this period. I want to just send an apology if you didn’t get a response, consider this post your response.
My confidence for the period of [...]

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Forecast Ideas Coming Together, But Still A Lot Of Uncertainty

January 22nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:23 AM
The basic ideas of the forecast for the period of Sunday through Wednesday is starting to come together slowly but surely. Let me first say the GFS 00Z and 06Z ideas have little support in developing a strong and defined trough in the West. As such, I basically through the model guidance out in [...]

Tags: 00z, Albany, Allentown, amounts, arctic air, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, band, Belmar, Bridgeport, clouds, coast, cold, Connecticut, Disturbance, dominance, dominants, ecmwf, ensembles, evenings, evolution, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecast period, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, frustration, gfs, globe, Great Lakes, guidance, guidance note, Hartford, high, Islip, lifting, Long Island, low, lows, mesoscale, metros, Mexico, mid, mid level moisture, Model Guidance, models, moderation, moisture, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, northern hemisphere, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitations, Rainfall, Reading, s, satellite, satellite images, Scranton, scream, screams, showers, sleet, snow, south, specifics, suggestion, surfaces, surprise, Sussex, synoptic, thermal gradient, Trough, ukmet, uncertainty, valleys, water vapor satellite, waves, weeke, west, west coast, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Closed