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Tag Archive for 'upper trough'

Models trend back to drier conditions for the weekend

October 29th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:04 AM
I have to wonder after looking at the guidance over the past three days if this is going to be a theme for the winter to follow? Model guidance took a big jump back away from the upper low, heavy rain event for Sunday. I was originally skeptical of this solution in the first [...]

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Tropical Weather Update for Wednesday, September 30 2009

September 30th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

4:45 AM
The tropical Atlantic continues to be dominated by strong westerly shear throughout the region. No development is expected over the next 48 hours as a deep trough dominates from the Gulf of Mexico through the Caribbean. Another strong upper trough is producing strong southwesterly shear over over the eastern Atlantic, prohibiting development off the [...]

Tags: Caribbean, deep trough, Gulf of Mexico, southwesterly shear, tropical weather update, upper trough. Technical Discussions Closed

Cooler, Fall conditions return

September 25th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

5:15 AM
The upper trough that finally forced a cold front off the East coast on Thursday morning will continue to slide to the east of the Mid Atlantic by this afternoon. The trough axis will be off the New Jersey coast this morning and passing the end of the Long Island Sound by this afternoon. [...]

Tags: air mass, Albany, Allentown, Atlantic City, atlantic city weather, atlantic ocean, Belmar, Bridgeport, cape may nj weather, central Plains, Citi Field, coastal waters, cold front, Connecticut, craigles nyc, current weather in new york, Freehold, Great Lakes, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, humid air, Islip, isolated thunderstorms, jackson nj weather, jet stream, level convergence, level jet, lightning, long beach island nj weather, Long Island, Long Island Sound, Long Island weather, manhattan weather, marine weather nj, Mets, Mid Atlantic, Mid Atlantic weather, Mid West, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, new jersey shore weather, New Jersey snowstorms, New Jersey Weather, New York, New York City, New York City Weather, New York snow storms, New York Weather, new york weather today, Newark, newark nj, newark nj weather, nj local weather, NJ Weather, nj weather 10 day forecast, nj weather forecast, nj weather radar map, nj weather report, northern Mid Atlantic, northern Mid Atlantic weather, ny weather 10 day, ny weather forecast, ny weather forecast 10 day, ny weather map, nyc weather map, ocean city, ocean city nj, pa weather alerts, pa weather forecast, pa weather map, pa weather radar, pa weather report, pacific northwest, past new york weather reports, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania weather, Philadelphia, philadelphia pa weather, Philadelphia Weather, Phillies, point pleasant nj, Poughkeepsie, princeton nj weather news 12 nj weather, Rainfall, Reading, saturday afternoon, Scranton, scranton pa weather, seaside nj weather, shortwave, snow, snow storms, strong, Sussex, thunderstorms, thursday morning, tides, tornado, trenton nj weather forecast, troughs, upper level disturbance, upper trough, weather and nyc, weather doylestown pa, weather easton pa, weather edison nj, weather for nyc, weather for pa, weather forecast pa, weather in new york, weather in nj, weather in nj today, weather in ny, weather in nyc, weather in nyc today, weather in pa, weather indiana pa, weather map, weather montclair nj, weather new brunswick nj, weather new york, weather new york city, weather newark nj, weather nyc, weather nyc forecast, weather nyc ny, weather ocean city nj, weather of nj, weather of nyc, weather princeton nj, weather scranton pa, weather union nj, weather wayne nj, White Plains, widlwood nj, Wild Wood, wild wood nj weather, wind gusts, Winter, winter 2009, winter forecast, winter predictions, winter weather 2009, winter weather advisory, winter weather forecast, winter weather predictions, yahoo weather nyc, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

Strong upper low influences the region

September 24th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:45 AM
The pattern this morning is is dominated by two key features. A strong trough over the Great Lakes and an upper low over the central Plains.
The upper trough over the Great Lakes is still centered to the west of the region, which means a southwesterly flow remains over the Mid Atlantic. As a result, [...]

Tags: central Plains, cold front, deep trough, forecast area, Great Lakes, Mid Atlantic, Polar Jet Stream, Rain, short wave, showers, slides, southwesterly flow, sunday morning, thunderstorms, upper trough, water vapor, wave trough. Technical Discussions Closed

Drier weather ahead, but pattern amplification on the way

September 16th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:18 PM
The upper level pattern is about to go into a significant transition from a progressive pattern to one of significant amplification. Of all the model guidance, I believe the ECMWF is the most aggressive, however the ECMWF has an established track record of picking up these pattern changes so the model should not be [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, amplification, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, axis, Belmar, Bridgeport, Citi Field, clear skies, coastal waters, Connecticut, easterly wind, ecmwf, forecast area, Freehold, friday afternoon, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, Islip, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, Mets, Mid Atlantic, Model Guidance, New England, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, overcast conditions, pattern changes, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Phillies, Poughkeepsie, pva, Reading, saturday afternoon, Scranton, showers, subsidence, Sussex, thunderstorms, thursday night, tides, tomorrow afternoon, tomorrow morning, tornado, upper trough, White Plains, Wild Wood, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

Developing low expected to impact region through this week

September 7th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:15 AM
This morning, the water vapor satellite image clearly shows the new and rather interesting pattern developing over the eastern half of the United States. A strong upper level disturbance is diving into the Tennessee Valley this morning, carving a negatively tilted weak trough from the Mississippi Valley to the Southeast and Mid Atlantic coast.
Meanwhile, [...]

Tags: air dries, air mass, Albany, Allentown, ample moisture, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, Belmar, Bridgeport, canadian maritimes, Citi Field, coastal waters, Connecticut, convection, cyclogenesis, forecast area, Freehold, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, Islip, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, Mets, Mid Atlantic, Mississippi Valley, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, northern quebec, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Phillies, Poughkeepsie, pressure gradient, Reading, satellite image, Scranton, southeastern canada, stationary front, Sussex, Tennessee Valley, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, upper level disturbance, upper trough, water vapor image, water vapor satellite, White Plains, Wild Wood, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

Location is key for next week

August 30th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

5:15 AM
A cold front that is moving through the forecast area this morning will be key in the type of weather conditions we can expect through the rest of this week. As many real estate agents will tell you, location is key.
The position of the upper trough this afternoon and continuing on through much of [...]

Tags: Albany, alignment, Allentown, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, Belmar, Bridgeport, Citi Field, coastal waters, cold front, Connecticut, forecast area, Freehold, further east, guidance, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, Islip, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, low pressure system, Mets, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Phillies, Poughkeepsie, Reading, real estate agents, scattered showers, Scranton, southwesterly flow, Sussex, temperatures, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, upper trough, waves, weather conditions, White Plains, Wild Wood, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

A very wet 48 hours

August 28th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:00 PM
The rainfall currently developing over the forecast area has no relation with Tropical Storm Danny that is currently over the Southeast coastal waters. This rainfall is due to a warm front that is still stalled over extreme southern New Jersey through central Maryland.
Rain will continue to impact much of the forecast area and expand [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, Belmar, Bridgeport, cape may county, central connecticut, central maryland, Citi Field, city metro, coastal waters, cold front, Connecticut, forecast area, Freehold, Gulf of Mexico, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, Islip, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, Mets, Model Guidance, Monmouth County, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, overwhelming influence, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Phillies, Poughkeepsie, Rainfall Amounts, Reading, remnants, saturday morning, scattered showers, Scranton, Sussex, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, tropical storm danny, tropical system, upper level disturbance, upper trough, White Plains, Wild Wood, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

Blame it on the rain

August 28th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:45 AM
If you woke up this morning and didn’t want to go to work, you can blame it on the rain that has already moved into the forecast area. A slow moving warm front is already producing waves of moderate to heavy rainfall over the forecast area. The warm front is currently south of Cape [...]

Tags: Africa, Alabama, Albany, Allentown, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, Belmar, Bridgeport, cape may new jersey, Caribbean, Caribbean Sea, Citi Field, coastal water, coastal waters, Connecticut, Florida, forecast area, Freehold, Georgia, Great Lakes, Gulf Coast, Gulf of Mexico, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, independent feature, Islip, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, Louisiana, Mets, Mexico, Mid Atlantic, Mississippi, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, North Carolina, north northwest, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Phillies, Poughkeepsie, Rainfall, rainy weekend, Reading, Scranton, showers, South Carolina, surface reflection, Sussex, sustained winds, Texas, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, Tropical Atlantic, tropical disturbances, tropical storm danny, upper trough, Virginia, water vapor satellite, waves, White Plains, Wild Wood, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

Tropical Storm Danny’s transformation to coastal storm on Saturday

August 28th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

5:15 AM
This morning, model guidance has come into strong agreement on exactly what to expect from Tropical Storm Danny and the interaction with the deep trough over the Southeast. As discussed last night, the best way to view Danny’s impact on the forecast area is to consider Danny as a Nor’ Easter rather than a [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, Belmar, Bridgeport, Citi Field, coastal waters, Connecticut, deep trough, forecast area, Freehold, Great Lakes, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, interaction, Islip, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, magnet, Mets, mid level moisture, Model Guidance, negative tilt, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Phillies, Poughkeepsie, rainfall event, Reading, remnant, remnants, Scranton, southeastern united states, Sussex, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, tropical characteristics, tropical storm danny, tropical system, upper level disturbance, upper trough, west mid, White Plains, Wild Wood, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed