Virga | NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Arctic cold in place, snow creeping north

January 30th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

9:23 AM
There’s a lot to cover this morning! So let’s get to it!
The area of precipitation that will impact the northern Atlantic this afternoon through this evening is currently developing over the Tennessee Valley and western Virginia under the influence of the strong Sub Tropical disturbance that is driving towards the Mid Atlantic coast. The [...]

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Dry, Cool, and Comfortable Conditions Continue

September 2nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

5:15 AM
High pressure will continue to be the dominant influence on the region through the next three days. The high pressure system is supported by weak convergence and confluence at 500 MB this afternoon. This pattern is expected to remain in place through this week, which will keep the dry, cool air mass in place.
While [...]

Tags: air mass, Albany, Allentown, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, Belmar, Bridgeport, Citi Field, clear skies, coastal plain, coastal waters, confluence, Connecticut, cool air, dominant influence, ecmwf, forecast area, forecast period, Freehold, friday evening, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, Islip, level mechanism, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, memorial day, Memorial Day Weekend, Mets, Model Guidance, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Phillies, Poughkeepsie, Reading, Scranton, stationary front, Sussex, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, tropical system, upper level trough, virga, weather conditions, White Plains, Wild Wood, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

Showers on the move as a rainy day sets up for tomorrow

March 25th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:30 PM
An area of showers over western Pennsylvania and throughout much of the Tennessee Valley. The showers are supported by weak isentropic lifting associated with a warm front moving towards the Mid Atlantic.
Clouds will continue to increase over the forecast area, however the majority of the rainfall will hold off until later tomorrow morning [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, amounts, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atmosphere, Belmar, Bridgeport, clouds, Connecticut, continuation, eastern Pennsylvania, Energy, evening hours, evenings, exiting, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, guidance, Hartford, heat energy, high, intense area, intensity, isentropic, Islip, latent heat, lifting, Long Island, low, lows, Maine, metros, mid, Mississippi, Mississippi Valley, Model Guidance, models, moisture, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, northe, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Rainfall, rainy day, Reading, regime, s, Scranton, severe thunderstorms, showers, Southeast, southern pennsylvania, Sussex, systems, Tennessee, Tennessee Valley, Texas, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, tomorrow evening, tomorrow morning, valleys, virga, warm, western pennsylvania, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Closed

Suppressed Storm Track Leads To Mostly Dry Conditions This Weekend

March 13th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

5:55 AM
The upper level pattern this morning pretty much can tell the whole story for this coming weekend. The negative NAO has matured and is pretty strong for mid March. The strong convergence over eastern Canada is supporting strong high pressure over the Great Lakes and Northeast. At the same time, a sheared out disturbance [...]

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The Influence Of The Coastal Frontal

March 1st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

4:15 PM
The influence of the coastal front can already be seen as moisture is stream ahead of the main storm over southern New Jersey. This precipitation is NOT the main storm, however we can already see how much moisture is available with this storm. The low level frontogenesis is focusing the precipitation ahead of the [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, Atlantic City, Belmar, boundary layer, Bridgeport, city metro, coastal front, Connecticut, Fall, Freehold, front, frontogenesis, Hartford, Islip, lifting, Long Island, low, lows, Maine, metros, mid, moisture, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, philadelphia metro, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Reading, s, Scranton, Storm, storms, Sussex, temperature, temperatures, virga, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Closed

Precipitation Rapidly Developing And Expanding

February 2nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:56 PM
Precipitation is rapidly developing over the forecast area as expected from the previous post. What we can expect in the coming hours is that precipitation shield will continue to expand and solidify over the Philadelphia metro, throughout New Jersey, and over the New York City metro. With dew points in the lower to mid [...]

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The Latest Satellite Trends

February 2nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:03 PM
The latest water vapor and satellite images strongly suggest the heaviest precipitation currently over the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia will move just off and along the New Jersey coast and towards Long Island.
First note that clouds have significantly cooled off the New Jersey coast southward through the coastal waters of South Carolina. There [...]

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Inverted Trough Will Bring Light To Moderate Snow To The Forecast Area

February 2nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:24 AM
I think the best corse of action through the next 66 hours is to use caution with this forecast. The reason why the model guidance has moved away from the “big storm” idea is because the southern branch disturbance does not phase with the northern branch disturbance. Instead, each disturbances moves through separately at [...]

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Expect Temperatures To Fall Over The Next Few Hours

January 27th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

With precipitation entering the forecast area, expect temperatures to fall into the mid to upper 20’s through out the forecast area. Current dew points range from the single digits to upper 10’s at this hour. As precipitation enters the forecast area, initially virga or precipitation that does not reach the ground due to evaporation, will [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgeport, Connecticut, dew points, digits, evaporation, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, Hartford, Islip, Long Island, mid, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Reading, s, Scranton, Sussex, temperature, temperatures, virga, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Closed

Ice Concerns Grow As Precipitation Races East

January 27th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

11:43 PM
While everyone has been debating about the trends of models (yes, there IS a cold “correction” to the guidance), what has me more interested is what is happening right in front of our noses.
There are several trends over the past few hours that I want to point out.
The first image is the [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, amounts, area, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgeport, central Pennsylvania, clouds, cold, combinations, Connecticut, current trends, Disturbance, east, ey, Fall, first image, flurrie, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, greens, guidance, Hartford, ice, Illinois, Indiana, ir satellite image, Islip, lifting, light snow, Long Island, Maryland, Mexico, models, moderate snow, moderation, moisture, New Jers Newark, New York, New York City, north, northern maryland, noses, observation, observations, Ohio, ohio indiana, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, plains, plume, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, radar, Reading, s, satellite, Scranton, snow, snowfall, snowfall amounts, Storm, storms, Sussex, tomorrow morning, valleys, virga, water vapor image, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Closed

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