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Keeping an eye on the trends

January 29th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

8:57 AM
Premium Post
The one feature this morning, that I discussed briefly in the public post this morning can be seen very clearly on the IR and water vapor images.
Note the cooling cloud tops over the Ohio Valley that is racing towards the northern Mid Atlantic. This area of cooling is the direct result of [...]

Tags: calling card, cloud tops, frontogenesis, Gulf of Mexico, jet stream, light snow, Long Island, Long Island Sound, metropolitan area, Mid Atlantic, mid levels, moisture advection, New York City, saturday night, snow showers, southwestern pennsylvania, thermal gradient, thir, water vapor images, water vapor satellite. Technical Discussions Closed

A stormy and volatile period begins

December 1st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:49 AM
There is plenty to discuss this morning in terms of storms, pattern development, and other interesting tidbits. Naturally, all eyes are glued to this weekend where a potential snow event is displayed on some guidance. I’m not as convinced of this potential, and I’ll explain why. But first, let’s look at the surface map [...]

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Strengthening coastal low brings wet conditions to New Jersey Coast

September 9th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

5:15 AM
Trouble is brewing off the Mid Atlantic coast this morning as a strong upper level disturbance continues to intensify over the Tennessee Valley.
As discussed the past several days, the upper level pattern that is developing over the eastern United States is more like a late fall or winter seasonal pattern than one seen [...]

Tags: air dries, Albany, Allentown, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, Belmar, Bridgeport, canadian maritimes, Citi Field, coastal waters, confluence, Connecticut, convergence, delmarva peninsula, Freehold, Gulf of Mexico, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, Islip, levels of the atmosphere, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, Mets, Mid Atlantic, mid levels, moisture sources, New England, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, northern new england, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Phillies, Poughkeepsie, Reading, scattered showers, Scranton, seasonal pattern, southeastern canada, steady rain, Sussex, Tennessee Valley, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, upper level disturbance, water vapor images, White Plains, Wild Wood, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

Another coastal storm threatens the region

July 22nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:15 PM
Once again, the weather pattern is acting more like mid October rather than mid July as a coastal storm begins to organize off the Southeast coast.
I studied all the model guidance from 12Z and 18Z this evening and found a basic overlying theme for the next 60 hours. The brunt of the heavy rain [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, Belmar, Bridgeport, brunt, Citi Field, coastal flooding, Coastal Storm, coastal waters, Connecticut, delaware river valley, eastern Pennsylvania, Freehold, friday morning, hail, Hartford, heaviest rainfall, heavy rain, island connecticut, Islip, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, Mets, Model Guidance, moderate rainfall, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Phillies, Poughkeepsie, rain shield, Rainfall Amounts, Reading, Scranton, shunts, Southeast Coast, Sussex, Tennessee Valley, thunderstorms, thursday afternoon, tides, tornado, Trough, water vapor images, weather pattern, White Plains, Wild Wood, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions 2 Comments

Final Snow Map For Event

March 1st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:56 AM
Here is my final call for the storm as I see it based on observations of water vapor images, boundary layer observations, and radar presentation. I think many of you are going to be pretty happy with what you’ll see!
SNOW MAP:
Area One: This area will be on the fringe of the precipitation shield with only [...]

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Afternoon Update And Video Discussion

February 28th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

4:54 PM
The latest model guidance and observations of the atmosphere are strongly pointing to what now looks like a major snow storm for the forecast area. The idea of a near perfect storm track to support a heavy snowfall is gaining major support from almost all model guidance. The biggest determining factor though is the [...]

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12Z Model Thoughts And The Influence Of The Negative NAO

February 10th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:47 PM
After a period of spring like weather, winter is going to return in a big way.
This morning, I discussed how there were two potential winter storms that will be moving through the Mid Atlantic. My thoughts this morning, based on the guidance that I had in front of me that the negative NAO and [...]

Tags: accumulation, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgrt, californian coast, canada, coast, combinations, Connecticut, CONUS, different time, discussion, Disturbance, epo, evenings, favorable environment, Freehold, front, guidance, Hartford, high, Islip, light snow, Long Island, low, lows, major winter, mid, Mississippi, Mississippi Valley, Model Guidance, models, moderate snow, moderation, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, polar air, Poughkeepsie, Rain, Reading, s, saturday evening, Scranton, Shear, snow, snow event, snowfall, south, southeastern canada, Storm, storm track, storms, Sussex, systems, thursday morning, Trough, troughs, valleys, water vapor images, weather, wednesday afternoon, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Winter, winter storm. Technical Discussions Closed

Thoughts On The Next Sixty-Six Hours

February 1st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:25 PM
The models this afternoon have been rather akward looking the past few runs. The latest guidance suggest precipitation should not be developing over western Kentucky and Mississippi, only problem is that it is. The latest water vapor satellite trends and the 00Z RAOB data suggest that key elements are in place to produce a [...]

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A Close Call, But Not Close Enough

January 19th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:00 PM
All eyes this evening are over the Carolina’s where an intense area of low pressure is on the way to developing. A strong disturbance will dive towards the southeast coast and support the development of this strong area of low pressure, which will like produce snow over parts of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern [...]

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Careful Thoughts

January 18th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

1:15 PM
The past few hours sure have been interesting in model guidance and when looking at the observations.
Precipitation is breaking out over the Delmarva, Maryland, and beginning to develop all over Virginia. Pressure falls are still developing over the Southeast, but the primary low is still in the Great Lakes. As a result, warm air [...]

Tags: advection, area, Atlantic, atmosphere, coast, coastal plain, cold, cold air, cold side, continuation, delmarva, dew points, discussion, Disturbance, dominance, dominants, dry slot, east, evaporation, evenings, ey, face value, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, front, Great Lakes, guidance, jersey maryland, low, lows, Maryland, mid, Model Guidance, models, moderation, moisture, moisture in the atmosphere, observation, observations, plains, precipitation, precipitations, pva, radar, rh values, snow, Southeast, southeastern Pennsylvania, southern pennsylvania, surfaces, systems, temperature, temperatures, thermal gradient, updates, verbatum, virga, warm, warm air advection, watches, water vapor images, waves, wills. Technical Discussions Closed