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Tag Archive for 'waves'

Morning Model Thoughts

12:24 PM
The 12Z GFS and PARA GFS are now in and I want to address a few features that I think are very important for the next 15 days.
Over the past few weeks, actually since October, I’ve been steady in advertising the threat that I saw coming for early December as the pattern changes.  The [...]

Significant coastal storm through Saturday

5:00 AM
Over the past several days, I have been tracking the approach of then hurricane Ida, which was entrained into a Sub Tropical disturbance and is now phasing with a Polar disturbance over the Mid Atlantic coast.  Model guidance has been wildly inconsistent in the forecasting of this storm, however the forecast at NY NJ [...]

12Z Guidance Thoughts for Sunday, October 11 2009

1:00 PM
Update 3:00 PM: The ECMWF is now in and the model guidance suggests a more organized upper level disturbance at 500 MB with a strong primary low off the New Jersey coast on Friday morning.  The ECMWF outcome would lead to strong sustained winds of at least 35 mph with higher gusts and would [...]

Boat and beach report for Sunday, October 4 2009

5:25 AM
Weak high pressure will gradually build into the coastal waters this morning as overcast skies give way to broken and then scattered cloud cover by this afternoon.  Weak high pressure will keep the New Jersey coastal waters and the Long Island Sound dry through Tuesday with scattered cloud cover through the period.
Winds will be [...]

Evening Thoughts

10:14 PM
First I want to let everyone know that the monthly news letter has been issued.  Any members that didn’t get the news letter, please let me know.  I am still ironing out how to get everyone the letters at the same time.
Today was a relatively quiet day for the region as high pressure built [...]

Boat and beach report for Sunday, September 27 2009

5:15 AM
Overcast skies can be expected along with periods of moderate rainfall through the early afternoon.  This afternoon and evening, the rain will become more scattered with broken cloud cover by the evening hours.  Tonight through early Monday morning, scattered to broken cloud cover along with dry conditions can be expected.  A strong cold front [...]

Boat and beach report for Thursday, September 17 2009

5:25 AM
Overcast to broken cloud cover and widely scattered showers are expected to remain over the coastal waters through the day.  Tonight, showers will become more isolated with broken cloud cover.  On Friday, a cold front will approach by the afternoon with broken to overcast skies and scattered showers through the evening.  High pressure will [...]

Boat and beach report for Monday, September 14 2009

5:25 AM
High pressure will produce few to scattered clouds over the coastal waters through this evening and continuing on through much of Tuesday.  The combination of a strong high pressure to the north and a developing low pressure system to the south will produce a persistent easterly fetch off the Atlantic, which will lead to [...]

Fall-like conditions visit Mid Atlantic to start September

5:25 AM
At least for one day, early fall like conditions will return to the forecast area as high pressure continues to build into the region.  High pressure will remain in control over the forecast area through the next three days, keeping much of the forecast area dry with generally clear skies.
The air mass in place [...]

Location is key for next week

5:15 AM
A cold front that is moving through the forecast area this morning will be key in the type of weather conditions we can expect through the rest of this week.  As many real estate agents will tell you, location is key.
The position of the upper trough this afternoon and continuing on through much of [...]



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