Free weather forecast for New York, New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania.
9:41 AM
As discussed yesterday, the majority of the model guidance and ensemble guidance came into strong support for keeping at that time Tropical Storm Ida, separate from the trough over the eastern United States and left to wander the Gulf of Mexico and eventually die off due to consistent up welling in the Gulf of [...]
10:21 AM
I wanted to expand my thoughts on Ida beyond the usual discussion. To be frank, I don’t have a lot of confidence on the models right now, but 99% of the time when all the models are pointing towards a general conclusion, it is usually a good idea to follow.
However, let’s talk about that [...]
8:32 AM
While high pressure gains control tonight over the Mid Atlantic to provide excellent weather conditions over the next several days, trouble is brewing over the western Caribbean. Tropical Depression Ida is reentering the warm Caribbean Sea this evening and is expected to strengthen back into a tropical storm by tomorrow afternoon. Ida is expected [...]
8:49 AM
A new trough is moving into the western Gulf of Mexico and is leading to an environment unfavorable for tropical develop this morning. Southwesterly shear is expected to continue from the Gulf of Mexico through the western Caribbean over the next 48 hours.
A disturbance over the central Caribbean is interacting with the trough [...]
4:45 AM
Henri weakened into a remnant low pressure system yesterday afternoon under the influence of strong southwesterly shear. If Henri had hung on for a few more hours, the tropical system may have had a chance to survive.
A large ridge is expanding from the Gulf of Mexico into the western Caribbean and western Atlantic. Dry [...]
5:48 AM
Much of the tropical Atlantic continues to remain quiet this morning with little to no signs of development expected over the next 48 hours.
Dry air behind a deep trough dominates the Gulf of Mexico with not one disturbance in sight over the region.
Meanwhile, a weak tropical wave is interacting with a trough over the [...]
4:45 AM
Strong westerly and southwesterly shear conditions to dominate much of the Tropical Atlantic this morning.
We’ll start in the Gulf of Mexico where an upper low over the southern Mississippi Valley is focusing a strong jet stream from southwest to northeast across much of the Gulf. As a result, dry air is building into the [...]
4:45 AM
With Danny exiting the tropical Atlantic and becoming an extratropical low pressure system, the tropical Atlantic has returned to a quiet state.
Once again, the majority of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a series of upper lows that continue to inhibit development of any tropical wave. One upper low is situated over the western [...]
5:30 AM
Strong shear continues to dominate the Tropical Atlantic this morning. A strong upper level trough remains in place over the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean, which will continue to prevent development of tropical features through the next 48 hours.
A strong upper low over the central Caribbean will also produce southwesterly shear throughout the [...]
5:25 AM
No changes have been observed in the Atlantic as a deep trough continues to dominate the Gulf of Mexico, western Caribbean, and western Atlantic. No signs of development have been observed over the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone as convection is generally disorganized and weak.
No development is expected for the next 48 hours.
– Weather When [...]
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