Free weather forecast for New York, New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania.
A disturbance ahead of the cold front is currently driving through the forecast area, which is produce a narrow yet powerful line of strong to severe thunderstorms. There is growing wind shear ahead and along this line of thunderstorms which will support the potential for an isolated tornado.
The main threat from this line of thunderstorms [...]
There’s a lot of topics I want to cover tonight so lets dive into it!
First and foremost, the heaviest rainfall from this afternoon’s coastal low is now off the coast and I only expect a few light showers and some drizzle for the rest of the overnight period. There is plenty of deep moisture still [...]
The local forecast discussion is updated.
I admit it. I’m kind of rushing through this update today. Today is the biggest Mets game of the year until maybe tomorrow depending on how things work out. Anyway, the upper low is finally swinging through the forecast area today making for cloudy skies and some wet conditions. Kyle [...]
The local forecast discussion is updated.
Well this morning, I’m in between a bust and a fair forecast. As far as rainfall totals go, I’m on track to basically to have nailed down that potential from roughly seven days out, so I don’t feel too bad about that. However, as far as the coastal flooding and wind is [...]
Deep convection in the form of steady heavy rain is reforming off the Mid Atlantic coast and is moving towards the forecast area. The heavy rain will move into southern New Jersey late tonight and expand through the rest of the forecast area towards morning.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Kyle is starting to interact with the [...]
I’m going to be making various posts through the evening on what’s developing to the east of the forecast area, but lets review to what we’ve seen so far.
This morning, heavy rainfall from the first “wave” of precipitation moved through much of New Jersey, the eastern Philadelphia metro, and all of the New York city [...]
A break in the rainfall is insight for much of southern New Jersey as the heavy rain band moves north into central New Jersey and points north and east. The break in the rainfall is in between two bands of heavy rainfall, the other over the coastal DELMARVA peninsula.
As I described the past few [...]
A lot of the model guidance for Kyle has shifted west this morning but still remains too far too the East compared to what I think may be developing in this storm.
Kyle this morning does not look overly impressive to me at all. I’ll let you be the judge. What I see is a tropical [...]
Just wanted to give a quick reminder of what storm mode is.
Basically storm mode is where a constant run down of the storm event is “blogged” while a forecast discussion is not written. The rest of the web site is updated as normal.
If anyone want to share there observations, feel free to do so in [...]
The steady rainfall that started last night has now become a well defined stream of moderate to heavy rainfall stretching from the Atlantic right into the New Jersey coastline. Rainfall amounts thus far based on Doppler estimates has reached from 0.5″ to 1.5″ of rain over Monmouth and Ocean Counties where the steady rainfall has [...]
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